According to a recently proposed nuclear safeguards technique, monitoring the power-normalized, ex-core neutron detection rate over time could be used to detect undeclared changes to the fissile composition of a reactor core. In this study, Monte Carlo simulations have been used to verify some of the underlying assumptions of this technique and the possibilities of using it to detect undeclared fuel substitutions during the first 2-year cycle of a light water small modular reactor. Depletion calculations and neutron transport simulations were used to study the changes in the power-normalized neutron leakage rate through the core barrel upon fuel substitutions and whether these changes are fully explained by changes in the core fissile composition. Several substitution scenarios have been studied, where partially depleted fuel assemblies were substituted with fresh fuel assemblies after 1 year of irradiation.

The modeled substitution scenarios, which included substituting up to 4 out of 37 fuel assemblies in the core at a time, resulted in changes in of up to 3.5% depending on which fuel assemblies were substituted. The results indicate that the ex-core neutron signatures are not only sensitive to core-averaged nuclide densities, fission cross sections, and neutron flux, but also the spatial distributions of these and other parameters throughout the core. Effects such as these could mean that monitoring the core fissile composition with the proposed technique might be more complex than previously suggested.