Turbulent heat transfer in buoyancy-dominated flows is a challenging problem for computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many authors attribute model error in these conditions to the Reynolds analogy. We leverage a brand-new direct numerical simulation database to evaluate the performance of several popular turbulence models in buoyant diabatic channel flow. We find that heat transfer results are relatively accurate, with a Nusselt number error less than 20%. However, the turbulent flow solution is very inaccurate, with wall shear overpredicted by up to 100%. This indicates significant turbulence model error in such flows. We determined that the dominant sources of model error are missing physics in the algebraic Reynolds stress framework and the simple buoyancy production term used in industrial CFD. We suggest that future modeling efforts focus on these two sources of model error. We demonstrate that the Reynolds analogy is not the dominant source of model error.