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Conference Spotlight
2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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The Standards Committee is responsible for the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards that address the design, analysis, and operation of components, systems, and facilities related to the application of nuclear science and technology. Find out What’s New, check out the Standards Store, or Get Involved today!
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Latest News
IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Yue Guan, Fei Li, Mohammad Modarres
Nuclear Technology | Volume 133 | Number 3 | March 2001 | Pages 290-309
Technical Paper | Reactor Safety | doi.org/10.13182/NT01-A3175
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
A method of integrating traditional thermal-hydraulic (TH) analysis with probabilistic assessment (PA) (called the TH-PA method) has been developed. This method allows for an exhaustive search through a set of individually developed but subsequently linked logic models to screen and identify accident scenarios. The logic models consist of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) used for probabilistic screening purpose and an ensemble of integrated behavior logic diagrams (IBLDs). The PRA model represents the functional/logical relationships of the components and accident scenarios, the same way as is modeled in the conventional PRAs. The IBLDs hierarchically represent system interactions/dependencies due to TH phenomena and human actions. This hierarchy also shows causal factors and consequences of plant states, and identifies induced system failures. The TH-PA method relies on two types of scenario screening: probabilistic screening (PA screening) and TH screening. The PA screening eliminates scenarios with low frequencies (e.g., <10-10/reactor-yr). The traditional frequency-based screening method used in the PRAs has been adopted for PA screening. The TH screening eliminates scenarios that do not expect to result in core uncovery. For the TH screening, a simple accident trajectory approach has been devised. A trajectory represents the collapsed liquid volume fraction in the reactor primary system as a function of primary pressure. The trajectories are based on simple mass and energy conservation equations (if the TH-PA method is applied to a system where mechanical energy transfer is important, momentum conservation should also be considered). The roles of each plant system are then identified by indicating whether the system is a "source" or a "sink" for mass and energy at a given time during accident progression. Based on an input set that represents the plant system failures and the stage of the transient, the accident trajectory is developed. The accident trajectory allows for the evaluation of safety significance of scenarios. The trajectory also determines whether the core becomes uncovered, should the input conditions (i.e., conditions described by the input set) remain unchanged.