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Conference Spotlight
2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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Latest News
IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Thomas Folk, Siddhartha Srivastava, Dean Price, Krishna Garikipati, Brendan Kochunas
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 198 | Number 11 | November 2024 | Pages 2080-2095
Research Article | doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2023.2288308
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Accurate assessment of uncertainties in cross-section data is crucial for reliable nuclear reactor simulations and safety analyses. In this study, we focus on the interpolation procedure of the partial derivatives (PD) cross-section model used to evaluate nodal parameters from pregenerated multigroup libraries. Our primary objective is to develop a systematic methodology that enables prediction of the incurred errors in the cross-section model, leading to the development of optimal case matrices, more efficient cross-section models, and informed case matrix construction for reactor types lacking substantial data and experience. We make progress toward this objective through a rigorous analytic error analysis enabled by the derivation of error expressions and bounds for the PD model based on the discovery that the method is a form of Lagrange interpolation. Our investigations reveal distinct outcomes depending on the chosen cross-section functionalizations, achieved by identifying the sources of error. These error sources are found to include interpolation error, which is always present, and model form error, which is a property of the supplied case matrix. We show that simply increasing grid refinement through the addition of branches may not always lead to decreased cross-section errors, particularly in cases where the model form error predominantly contributes to the total error. We present numerical results and verification in a companion paper, showing these different error characteristics for various cross-section functionalizations. Although applied to current light water reactor environments, our methodology offers a means for advanced reactor analysts to develop case matrices with quantified error levels, advancing the goal of a general methodology for robust two-step reactor analysis. Future work includes exploring different lattice types and functionalizations, extending reactivity bounds to multilattice problems, and investigating historical effects within the macroscopic depletion model.