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Division Spotlight
Human Factors, Instrumentation & Controls
Improving task performance, system reliability, system and personnel safety, efficiency, and effectiveness are the division's main objectives. Its major areas of interest include task design, procedures, training, instrument and control layout and placement, stress control, anthropometrics, psychological input, and motivation.
Meeting Spotlight
Utility Working Conference and Vendor Technology Expo (UWC 2024)
August 4–7, 2024
Marco Island, FL|JW Marriott Marco Island
Standards Program
The Standards Committee is responsible for the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards that address the design, analysis, and operation of components, systems, and facilities related to the application of nuclear science and technology. Find out What’s New, check out the Standards Store, or Get Involved today!
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Latest News
ARPA-E announces $40 million to develop transmutation technologies for UNF
The Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) announced $40 million in funding to develop cutting-edge technologies to enable the transmutation of used nuclear fuel into less-radioactive substances. According to ARPA-E, the new initiative addresses one of the agency’s core goals as outlined by Congress: to provide transformative solutions to improve the management, cleanup, and disposal of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel.
Jan Peter Hessling
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 184 | Number 3 | November 2016 | Pages 388-399
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE16-8
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
For evaluation of the uncertainty of nuclear power calculations, the Wilks approach has the appearance of an ideal tool. A conservatively estimated bound is obtained as the r’th most extreme model result, of a random sample of size determined by r. The methodology is noninvasive and simple and seems efficient and adequate. However, as this paper shows, these attributes come with a high price of large bias and substantial sampling variance. This jeopardizes its utilization as well as lowers its credibility and perceived efficiency. The unfortunate combination of random sampling and faithful estimation may result in a relative sampling uncertainty of the estimated bound(s) of no less than 100%. What is defined as credibility, i.e., the probability that the estimated bound is conservative relative to the true result, is well below the confidence relating the targeted bound(s) to the true result, which for the default application of the Wilks method translates into an expected failure rate of up to 10% (instead of 5%) of estimated bounds. To compensate for this deficit in credibility compared to the chosen level of confidence, adjustments of current practice are proposed. The application to modeling uncertainty is to be clearly distinguished from the original experimental sampling problem addressed by Wilks. Here, more is known but not utilized. A viable novel alternative based on so-called deterministic sampling with higher accuracy, precision, and efficiency will therefore be briefly discussed and illustrated.