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Conference Spotlight
2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
T. Matsumura
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 183 | Number 3 | July 2016 | Pages 407-420
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE15-86
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
The neutron escape probability from a rectangular cell is investigated for the collision probability method. Since the numerical calculation of the escape probability requires multiple integrations, resulting in a long computing time, semianalytical approximation of the multiple integrations is proposed to reduce the computing time. By approximating the result of integration in the z-direction by a polynomial expression divided into ranges, it is possible to perform the integrations in the x- and y-directions analytically. The computing time of the present semianalytical approximation is reduced by one to two orders of magnitude compared with that required for the conventional numerical integration. Moreover, a lookup escape probability table for rectangular cells calculated using the semianalytical approximation enables the calculation of the escape probability for an arbitrary rectangle with a much shorter computing time and practical precision (<0.1% error). In addition, a method of applying the semianalytical approximation and a lookup table to the collision probability calculation for an x-y geometry is discussed.