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2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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Latest News
IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Chunyan Li, Junli Li, Jianping Cheng, Zhen Wu, Lucheng Pei, Jiajin Fan
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 159 | Number 3 | July 2008 | Pages 284-295
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE159-284
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
In the calculation of point flux by Monte Carlo simulation, there is a special disadvantage in the mostly used method of next event estimation (NEE) for which theoretical variance is infinite. And, this problem has not yet been solved satisfactorily. The purpose of this paper is to provide some new ideas to solve the problem of infinite variance without introducing any bias for the mean. To eliminate the unbounded factors, the relations among the different state variables for two neighboring collisions are analyzed; then, on the basis of the integral expression of the once-more scattered flux contribution to the point detector, by changing the state variables to be sampled, six basic methods are derived - two of them are NEE and collision probability estimation, and four are new methods. Furthermore, based on one of the new methods, by variable substitution, a new method called exponent biased sample estimation (EBS) is obtained that can eliminate the [arrow over]rd - [arrow over]rm-2 singularity factor and has no exponent factor, which exists in other methods. The benchmark results show that EBS is much better than NEE with the variance of one order of magnitude smaller and a figure-of-merit factor of several hundreds higher sometimes, and its calculation efficiency is higher than that of the once more collision flux estimation method. Compared with the direction biased sample estimation method, EBS has no advantage in variance, but the sample procedures are much simpler and use less CPU time.