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Christmas Light
’Twas the night before Christmas when all through the house
No electrons were flowing through even my mouse.
All devices were plugged by the chimney with care
With the hope that St. Nikola Tesla would share.
H. W. Lewis
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 91 | Number 2 | October 1985 | Pages 220-222
Technical Note | doi.org/10.13182/NSE85-A27443
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
In the performance of probabilistic risk assessments, in which there are inevitably large uncertainties, it is customary to characterize the computed probabilities in terms of their medians. When this is done, it is incorrect to add the probabilities of different accident sequences to find an overall probability of some consequence (like core melt), or to add the risks of the members of a population of reactors to find the societal risk. The error is not only one in principle, but is substantial when the uncertainties are large. In addition, the uncertainties are reduced when the probabilities are combined properly. Some examples are given.