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2025 ANS Winter Conference & Expo
November 9–12, 2025
Washington, DC|Washington Hilton
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IAEA again raises global nuclear power projections
Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
In the report’s high-case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to from 377 GW at the end of 2024 to 992 GW by 2050. In a low-case scenario, capacity rises 50 percent, compared with 2024, to 561 GW. SMRs are projected to account for 24 percent of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5 percent in the low case.
Dimitri G. Naberejnev, Claude Mounier, Richard Sanchez
Nuclear Science and Engineering | Volume 131 | Number 2 | February 1999 | Pages 222-229
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.13182/NSE99-A2030
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
At this time, experimental transmission data are analyzed with codes like REFIT or SAMMY, which use the free gas model to fit the form of the resonances. The use of the resonance parameters issued from such analysis for further reconstruction of the cross section with codes like NJOY can result in nonnegligible errors in the cross sections as well as in the reaction rates.To analyze the bias introduced on resonance parameters by the use of the free gas model and its consequences on reaction rates, we set up a numerical experiment that closely follows the actual scheme of the nuclear data evaluation.First, we use resonance parameters from the JEF2.2 nuclear library to calculate our reference cross section with Lamb's harmonic crystal model. This cross section is then used to simulate transmission coefficients, and a new set of resonance parameters is obtained using the code REFIT to fit the shape of the transmission with the help of the free gas model. These resonance parameters are used to estimate the errors in the reaction rates.We conclude that the free gas model does not ensure reaction rate conservation. A comparison of the capture rates showed that the discrepancy between this model (with the bias on the resonance parameters described here) and the harmonic crystal model (with initial JEF2.2 parameters) is important for reactor physics. For the first resonance of 238U, which represents 30% of the total 238U absorption in a thermal nuclear reactor, the error in the capture reaction rates reaches 3% for the biased resonance parameters issued from UO2 analysis, and up to 1% for the biased resonance parameters issued from metallic uranium analysis. Such a discrepancy could be corrected using a crystal model for the experimental data analysis.