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Fusion Science and Technology
Latest News
Uncertainty contributes to lowest uranium spot prices in 18 months
A combination of plentiful supply and uncertain demand resulted in spot pricing for uranium closing out March below $64 per pound, with dips down to about $63.50 during mid-March—the lowest futures prices in 18 months, according to tracking by analysis firm Trading Economics. Spot prices have also fallen steadily since the beginning of 2024. Meanwhile, long-term prices have held steady at about $80 per pound at the end of March, according to Canadian front-end uranium mining, milling, and conversion company Cameco.
Mark R. Cianciosa, James D. Hanson, David A. Maurer
Fusion Science and Technology | Volume 74 | Number 1 | July-August 2018 | Pages 1-12
Technical Paper | doi.org/10.1080/15361055.2017.1392819
Articles are hosted by Taylor and Francis Online.
Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. In this work, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the results of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.