Nuclear progress, but not much else, from COP29

“One of the most amazing things about COP is that it’s really a combination of so many different things—policy negotiations, trade show, technical seminars, and more. All aspects of climate science are represented,” said Hauck, a senior scientist for innovative nuclear reactor research and development at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The ANS team was able to positively impact the research and independent nongovernmental organizations (RINGOs) by getting nuclear-inclusive wording into the constituency group’s closing statement during negotiations. RINGOs are the second-largest of the nine NGO constituencies recognized by the UNFCCC, making up 25 percent of the 2,000 admitted NGOs. RINGOs conduct research and analysis to develop strategies addressing both the causes and consequences of global climate change.

Big picture: The annual international gathering aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, build resiliency to climate-related issues, promote sustainable practices, and drive the transition to low-carbon economies.

Following a pledge signed by a few dozen nations at last year’s summit to triple nuclear energy capacity worldwide by 2050, COP29 was focused on securing financing to assist the countries that need it most to support climate-friendly energy sources.

While a new deal was announced at the end of the summit—with developed countries “taking the lead” to provide up to $300 billion per year by 2035 to support the energy transition in more vulnerable countries—many feel the new deal is inadequate, especially since the financing provisions are voluntary. Additionally, the new commitment is far less than the $1.3 trillion developing countries lobbied to secure.

“There were many people who seemed devastated by the overall lack of progress in preventing climate change or agreement on sufficient funding for loss and damage caused by climate change,” Grae said.

But with the host country’s president opening the meeting by saying “oil and gas are a ‘gift of god’ and criticizing ‘Western fake news’ about Azerbaijan’s emissions,” hope of significant agreements or action plans diminished early on, he added.

ANS involvement: “The team did an amazing job of seeming to be everywhere, from speaking on panels at pavilions, to meeting with reporters and NGOs, to sitting in on negotiating sessions and following up with conversations with official delegates,” Grae said. “The nuclear team may have been small compared to the couple thousand registered oil lobbyists who attended COP29, but the nuclear team was mighty and helped bring about victories that will help nuclear energy help the climate.”

Smith, communications director for ANS, agreed: “We had an impact by integrating ourselves into our constituency group and contributing to draft statements and negotiations happening in real time.”

In the RINGO closing statement, for example, ANS contributed to wording that advocates for countries to pursue a “science-based, collaborative, and holistic approach to supporting the development of long-term, viable solutions to complex socio-ecological problems. . . . [And] to prioritize realistic, equitable, scientific, and rights- and performance-based approaches.”

“It is a small nudge, but considering there are over 500 RINGO members, we were able to punch above our weight,” Smith said. “Our role there was to continue raising nuclear’s profile as a clean energy solution and not cede any space to antinukes.”

What’s next? On an international scale, the pressure increases for countries to make more progress next year when COP30 is held in Brazil.

The U.S. might see gains sooner through plans the Biden administration announced during COP29 to add 200 gigawatts of nuclear power in the U.S. over the next 25 years. This would achieve the U.S.’s goal of tripling domestic nuclear capacity as outlined in the COP28 pledge—which six additional countries signed onto during COP29.

The new U.S. road map—Safely and Responsibly Expanding U.S. Nuclear Energy: Deployment Targets and a Framework for Action—calls the deployment goals “ambitious but achievable,” including a short-term plan to jumpstart the domestic industry, adding 35 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2035. The growth will be achieved through a combination of new reactor deployment, plant restarts, and upgrades at existing sites, according to Biden’s plan.

The future of this plan, however, will be in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump come January, and many nuclear advocates are wary. Trump is expected to withdraw the U.S. (again) from the Paris Climate Change Agreement to limit global warming this century to less than 1.5°C; and he’s promising to expand fossil fuel production once back in office.