This deadline assumes that all currently operating plants will stay open until then-but this is just not happening. Several plants are either closing or have been closed long before the end of their useful lives. Vermont Yankee closed in 2014 after providing decades of clean, safe energy to New England; Indian Point is slated to close in 2020 after Entergy, its owner, reached a deal with the governor of New York [1]; and Millstone may close if Dominion, its owner, fails to convince the Connecticut legislature to pass a bill to allow it to sell its electricity on the renewables market by reclassifying nuclear energy as "green" to improve profitability [2].
Nuclear reactor units have a finite life due to material constraints and accumulated damage over decades of operation caused by thermal cycling, neutron damage, and embrittlement, to name a few. Even with life-extension initiatives such as the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3] to operate plants to 60+ years [4], at least a few of the units built in the 1970s and 1980s will be closing in the 2030s or 2040s.
It is now 2017, and 2030 is only 13 years away. Time is running out. The United States will eventually be forced to rely on energy sources that may not be the best choice for our environment just to fill the 20-30 percent hole in generating capacity that nuclear would leave behind. The energy source that will most likely replace nuclear is natural gas. It's a fossil fuel, and it has CO2 emissions that nuclear does not have. Indeed, when Vermont Yankee closed, CO2 emissions in New England increased by 2.5 percent [5]. Additionally, the current supply of cheap natural gas cannot continue forever. As demand increases, so will prices, which will lead to increases in electricity rates and may ironically make nuclear look better once again. However, by then it will be too late for nuclear, especially if recent trends (delays and cost overruns) during the construction of Vogtle and the now suspended V.C. Summer plants [6] continue.
High upfront capital costs, stringent regulations, long lead times, public opposition to nuclear, and cheap electricity have not created the best scenario in favor of building nuclear plants, even at a time when they are needed the most. Maybe every state should follow the steps that Connecticut may take to ensure that Millstone remains operating if they allow it access to the green energy market. How the industry reacts to these challenges will determine whether the next decade is a new dawn or a sunset for commercial nuclear power in the U.S.
References
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/nyregion/indian-point-nuclear-power-plant-shutdown.html
[2] http://www.nhregister.com/business/article/Millstone-bill-heads-to-full-Connecticut-11312226.php
[3] https://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/light-water-reactor-sustainability-lwrs-program
[4] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=19091
[5] https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2017/05/nga_regional_market_trends_forum_babula_presentation_5_4_2017.pdf
[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/climate/nuclear-power-project-canceled-in-south-carolina.html
