Supply and demand: “We’re building nuclear power plants and we’re proposing new nuclear power plants faster than we’re bringing on new uranium supply,” Melbye said. However, he continued, because uranium supply is not keeping up with demand, existing mines that have been closed should have operations restarted.
Russian import ban: The U.S. ban on uranium imports from Russia, scheduled to take full effect by 2027, has created new challenges, Melbye explained. “The ban was very important because . . . 25 percent of our enrichment, 50 percent of our uranium today has come from Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and that’s inhibited additional mines in places like Canada and the United States,” he said. “We now know that we can build mines in the U.S., and we won’t be undercut by Russian or Kazakhs going forward.”
Melbye said that some other sanctions on Russia may go away, but that the uranium ban won’t be undone. Thus, there is an urgent need for the U.S. to boost its domestic production of uranium.
Energy dominance: According to Melbye, the energy policy changes that are being enacted by the Trump administration are presenting new opportunities for the uranium and nuclear industries. He said that Trump’s new National Energy Dominance Council will clear up bottlenecks or obstacles in the way of oil, gas, nuclear, and uranium. “In a Trump administration, [energy security] means natural gas and nuclear,” he said.
AI and data centers: Regarding the increase in electricity generation that is required by the spread of artificial intelligence and data centers, Melbye offered the example of the state of Virginia, where 20 percent of the electricity produced there today goes to data centers, with expectation of a boost to 40 percent within two years. “Magnify that around the country and around the developed world . . . these data centers use 10 times the computing power of the current average Google search. . . . To stay ahead of China and other countries, the U.S. is going to need to build out the power systems that’ll support AI.”
More nuclear: Melbye believes the only way to build these necessary power systems is to build more nuclear reactors, especially small modular reactors. “I think in the next generation, SMRs will revolutionize the way electricity is generated and delivered,” he said, adding that the present still needs conventional nuclear reactors. “The low-hanging fruit is to try to capture nuclear-powered electricity from existing plants,” he said. “Don’t be shocked over the course of 2025 if we have announcements of new large-scale reactors.”
Uranium market: All these factors are going to continue to impact the uranium market. “We’re already seeing a premium develop for uranium bought and sold in the United States—about $2 to $3 a pound on a $64/lb product,” Melbye said. “I would expect that [uranium] prices will be higher in the U.S. market for U.S. pounds that are either mined in the U.S. or already located in the U.S. and don’t have to cross a border.”
