The report concludes with a call for continued technological innovation and government support, investment incentives, regulatory stability, adequate planning for required workforces and supply chains, and new business models in order to help SMRs usher in “a new era for nuclear energy.”
Changing global map: In a news release last month, the IEA said that “the global map for nuclear is changing,” with China on track to overtake the United States and the European Union by 2030 in installed nuclear capacity. Furthermore, 48 of the 52 nuclear reactors on which construction has started throughout the world since 2017 are of either Chinese or Russian design.
Regarding this international competition, the report states, “The picture may change again, though, as new technologies such as SMRs come to market.”
SMR potential: According to the report, “Under today’s policy settings, total SMR capacity reaches 40 GW by 2050, but the potential is far greater.” SMR technology has the potential to provide 80 GW of electricity—or 10 percent of overall global nuclear capacity—by 2040. However, “the success of the [SMR] technology and speed of adoption will hinge on the industry’s ability to bring down costs by 2040 to a similar level to those of large-scale hydropower and offshore wind projects.”
Rapid growth scenario: Even more ambitious scenarios are explored in the report. In terms of a “rapid growth scenario” in which SMR capacity reaches 120 GW by the middle of the 21st century, investment in this advanced nuclear technology would need to increase to $25 billion by 2030 from where it currently stands at less than $5 billion, “with cumulative investment of $670 billion by 2050.”
Private capital: The report makes it clear that increases in private capital are essential for growth in the advanced nuclear market, and “new nuclear projects cannot rely exclusively on public finances.” To keep the financing costs of new nuclear projects as low as possible and to attract private capital, “ensuring the predictability of future cash flows is key.”
The International Energy Agency has published a new report examining opportunities for the nuclear power industry to address concerns related to energy security and climate change. The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy explores areas of policy, innovation, construction, and financing with an emphasis on investment-related issues regarding small modular reactors.
